A world production of 2.6 million tons of olive oil is expected next season

A world production of 2.6 million tons of olive oil is expected next season

09/22/2014 - The world production of olive oil will be 2,618,000 tons in the upcoming 2014/15 season, according to forecasts from the International Centre of Excellence for Olive Oil GEA Westfalia Separator Ibérica. For Spain the estimation for production is of 960,000 tons, 36% of the total global supply and 47% less than in the previous season.
In the report, this decrease has been attributed to the expected drop in production in various areas of Spain such as Jaén, one of the world's main producers. Specifically, during the last campaign Spanish olive crops accounted for 55% of the world's total production of olive oil, with a volume of nearly 1.8 million tons.

One of the most significant developments of this study -in whose elaboration have collaborated over 50 olive associations, universities, manufacturers and research groups from five continents- is the significant increase of production in Italy, which will reach 450,000 tons due to the good status of crops in areas of Puglia, Abruzzo, Umbria and Campania. Thus, Italy would increase its production of olive oil 15% compared to the previous campaign, in which, however, did not reach very high figures.

Forecasts of GEA Westfalia Separator Ibérica also suggest a similar scenario in Greece. After several years of declines it will improve its figures during this campaign, due to the good harvest forecasts in regions like Lakonia, Crete and Kalamata. In this case, production will increase around 18% compared to last year.

However, there is a clear lowering tendency in countries such as Morocco, where production will decrease 25%, especially due to the loss of the crop because of the drought in the areas of Marrakech and Beni Mellal.

Something similar will happen in the United States, New Zealand and Chile, where production will drop by 19%, 25% and 12%, respectively. The report attributes these reductions to meteorological factors such as the lack of rain in Southern California, the severe drought in the South Island of New Zealand, or the absence of rainfall in the north of Santiago de Chile.

Meanwhile, Tunisia and Turkey maintain their average production as last year; while Portugal will drop its production around 23%, due to low rainfall -which will also advance the campaign-, and the alternate bearing of this crop.

Stocks and prices at origin

As for stocks, since the campaign in Portugal has been brought forward, it is expected to reach about 200,000 or 300,000 tons.

In this regard, President of GEA Westfalia Separator Ibérica, Juan Vilar, stressed that this is a fairly low figure compared to other years, mainly due to the evolution of exports that, with an average of 150,000 tons per month, for the first time in history will exceed a million tons.

On prices in origin, Juan Vilar has stressed that "a restrained upward trend will continue until the start of the campaign in Portugal, which will happen in about two weeks. From there, if the trend of the offer is ratified, prices should keep stable, after falling between 5 and 15%, in between 2.2 and 2.5 euros per kilo. "

GEA Westfalia Separator Ibérica has detailed that overall supply will be affected by 21% over the last season and the same thing will happen adding both prospective supply and inventories that may be available in mid October. Thus, during 2014/15, the company expects global available supply of olive oil in the world to be 20% lower than during the previous season.

In those areas of olive oil supply, the Centre pointed out that there are currently 47 producing countries following recent additions of Armenia and Namibia.

Furthermore, the product is consumed in 110 countries, and the largest global applicants are Italy, Spain, Greece and the United States.
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