The increase in exports of olive oil this campaign could favor a change in the trend in prices

The increase in exports of olive oil this campaign could favor a change in the trend in prices

2019/29/03 - The Spanish and international production situation plus the maintenance of consumption will lead to a propitious scene to continue the good march of Spanish exports (they have already increased by 26% regarding the previous campaign), that can encourage the favorable change in the dynamics of the prices at origin, as was confirmed yesterday in Madrid at the Seventh Sectoral Table of Olive Oil and Table Olives, in which the situation and campaign data of the sector were analyzed.

The forecast for production in Spain for the 2018/19 season is estimated at 1,740,000 tons, representing an increase of 38% over the previous season. Worldwide, production will decrease by 5%, with very significant reductions in Italy (-59%), Greece (-42%), Portugal (-20%) and Tunisia (-57%).

At this meeting, it became clear that the weather conditions have led to a delay in the harvest that has defined the olive oil production campaign in Spain, with a high concentration of oil production between December and February. In this scenario, the significant increase in the offer during these months has brought with it a very significant reduction in prices in all categories.

However, the forecast of overall campaign balance points to the existence of a market equilibrium and that the normalization of output volumes, due to domestic demand and, above all, to the main importing countries, should allow prices to stabilize and recover.

Regarding the available measures that can contribute to the recovery of market prices, the private storage of olive oil was analyzed, a measure whose activation corresponds to the European Commission, particularly when market prices are below the price of community reference. At the moment, although the prices have dropped significantly during the last weeks, they are still above the reference threshold, according to the Spanish Ministry.

In this regard, the Ministry reported on the steps that have been taken before the Community Executive so that, if the quotations from the olive oil market continue to fall and, therefore, the conditions for its application are met, the Commission activate this measure as quickly as possible.

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